By Nancy Jaffer

Aachen, Germany, August 18, 2006 -- "Go out on a limb," my editor said when we discussed how I would write my predictions for the World Equestrian Games (WEG), which start a two-week run Sunday at the celebrated showgrounds in the city where Charlemagne once reigned.

So I took her up on the invitation and here I am, teetering on a twig, as I handicap this world championships extravaganza. The USA's medal hopes are high. Will we live up to expectations? Here's my assessment.

The 1986 world championship U.S. show jumping team © 1986 by Nancy Jaffer

Show Jumping
The last time I was in Aachen for a show jumping title meet was in 1986, which also happened to be the last time separate world championships in the sport were held before the advent of the WEG concept in 1990. The U.S. was supreme in the sport then, with the classic style of the de Nemethy era still prevalent among our riders and the value of the dollar high enough against European currency so that Americans could easily purchase top-notch horses if their bank accounts were deep enough.

On that team was The Natural, the first $1 million jumper, ridden by Katherine Burdsall--who was to become the last American to win the World Cup show jumping finals the following year.

Michael Matz, now best known as the trainer of 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, was part of the squad with Chef, while Conrad Homfeld rode his 1984 Olympic team gold and individual silver medal mount Abdullah. The other member Katie Monahan (before she was married to Henri Prudent) competed on Amadia. Sure enough, we won the team gold, and Conrad took the individual silver.

I'd love to predict another USA team gold on the 20th anniversary of that auspicious occasion, especially since no U.S. show jumping team ever has been in the WEG medals (though Peter Wylde did gain an individual bronze in 2002). But it's going to be tough. Germany has so much depth in horses and riders that their multi-Olympic gold medalist Ludger Beerbaum might not even make the final team! But you can be sure that one of those going for all the honors will be 2005 World Cup Champion Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum. And then there's Marcus Ehning, a genius on a horse, whatever he rides. The Germans are on their home turf, which can be an advantage, because they know it so well and they'll have the crowd behind them. Yet that also can increase the pressure--though with such a seasoned squad, it probably won't be a factor.

I think Germany will win, as they did at the 2004 Olympics, before Ludger's horse tested positive for a forbidden substance and they had to give up the top placing to the U.S. Other key players will be France, whose brilliant riders are always a big threat (and who won the team gold at the last WEG); Switzerland and Canada, fielding its best squad in years.

Some favor the Brits, but I don't see them figuring in the medals, despite the presence of such stalwarts as Robert Smith and longtime team fixtures the Whitaker brothers, John and Michael. Nick Skelton, who wasn't chosen with Arko III after the horse showed poor form (which later was found to be a hoof problem) got a last-minute nod after William Funnell withdrew Cortiflex Mondriaan because of a soundness issue. (William joins his wife Pippa on the sidelines; she missed the British eventing team when Primmore's Pride had a soundness issue, too.) Nick is back on the squad with Russel, who is good in the speed and puissance, but he's no Arko.

So here's my bet: 1) Germany; 2) USA; 3) France (or maybe Switzerland or Canada; it's a little shaky out here on that limb).

Beezie Madden could have a shot at an individual medal at the WEG. © 2006 by Nancy Jaffer

The individual medals in show jumping at the WEG are hard to handicap because the unusual format for the final four has each rider in the group jumping an identical course on the others' horses (the same thing happens at the USEF Talent Search.) Some say it's not really the world show jumping championship--it's the world catch-riding championship.

Not everyone who has won the title went on to further fame and glory, and some suffered more than bad luck. Hartwig Steenken of Germany, the victor in 1974, died in a car crash four years later. Another German, Norbert Koof, who I watched take the prize in Dublin in 1982, was paralyzed in an accident. And the 2002 winner, Dermott Lennon of Ireland, broke an arm shortly thereafter and hasn't shown the same form since.

I would say two American riders, Beezie Madden (Authentic) and McLain Ward (Sapphire) have a shot at making the final four. Any one of the Germans could do it (my money's on Marcus and Meredith) and you always have to consider former World Champion Rodrigo Pessoa of Brazil in what could be the aging Baloubet du Rouet's last championships hurrah.

But I can practically guarantee the final four will include someone you wouldn't expect, and if he or she is a good catch rider, the gold could go to him or her.

Dressage
The most predictable of the three Olympic disciplines being held at the WEG, dressage tends to run true to form because riders perform the same tests they've been doing at other venues during the season(s) past, and there's no unknown variable of a course designer's whimsy as in show jumping and eventing.

So figure Germany for gold and the Dutch for silver. Although everyone's been waiting for the Dutch to overtake the German gold medal monopoly in this discipline, there are only two really strong entries on the Dutch side, World Cup and Olympic champion Anky van Grunsven (Keltec Salinero) and her pupil Edward Gal (Lingh). The Germans are so deep that when Klaus Husenbeth had to withdraw Piccolino after an injury, the team didn't miss a beat as Olympic veterans Hubertus Schmidt and Wansuela Suerte stepped up to the plate.

Dressage gold medal indvidual favorite Anky van Grunsven with Keltec Salinero © 2005 by Nancy Jaffer

The real excitement in dressage is who will win the bronze. The U.S. has taken that medal at every Olympics and world championships since 1992, with the exception of the 1998 WEG when it went medal-less, and 2002 when it made history by taking the silver over a Dutch squad lacking the strength it would show two years later in the Olympics.

But America has competition in the form of the Danes and the Swedes this time. The Spaniards, who also might have been considered a factor a few weeks ago, became non-contenders when their strongest combination bowed out. Beatriz Ferrer-Salat won't be appearing because her 19-year-old Beauvalais had soundness woes.

Individually, Anky seems likely to dominate the gold medal ranks. Germany's Isabell Werth, a multi-gold medalist whose Warum Nicht had a last-minute injury, prompted her switch to Satchmo that might narrow the tiny gap between Germany and the Netherlands in the team medals, could be duking it out for individual silver with teammates Heike Kemmer (Bonaparte), the German national dressage champ this year, and Nadine Capellman (Elvis). Nadine was world champ last time out at the WEG with Farbenfroh, who died two years ago. A non-German who could also be on hand for individual medal ceremonies is Sweden's Jan Brink with Bjorsell's Briar.

An American might have a shot, though, especially because there are more individual medals available than there were last time. Medals will be awarded for the Special as well as the freestyle. In making my predictions, I can't really break it down to say who could get the Special medals as opposed to who gets the freestyle medals. It could be all the same people, but with more opportunities to make mistakes, that may open the door for others than those one might otherwise envision as the top three or four.

I must tell you that I dreamed an American got an individual bronze. I couldn't see who it was, since my dream view was from the back and side, but it looked like a man. In that case, it would be Steffen Peters with Floriano, but I have to say, psychic messages aside, our best shot for individual glory is Debbie McDonald with Brentina. Debbie and the 15-year-old mare deserve individual recognition, having narrowly missed the individual bronze both in the 2002 WEG and the 2004 Olympics.

I think the team dressage will go this way: 1) Germany; 2) Netherlands; 3) USA.

For my predictions on eventing and the non-Olympic disciplines, click "Next."